This article is part of the2022 Electronic Design Forecastissue
What you'll learn:
- Covid如何影响2022年的技术趋势。
- Building up resiiency and security in supply chains.
- The democratization of IT.
- The insatiable demand for bandwidth, and the roles of 5G and 6G in this space.
In 2021, the world continued to experience an unprecedented public health crisis—the coronavirus pandemic. This has impacted all sectors of society and forced enterprises, small businesses, governments, and private institutions to pivot, in some cases extensively, to accelerate digital transformations and rethink the way innovation is achieved.
这里，Keysightexecutives comment on the shape-shifting business operations and technology trends that are unfolding through the lens of the pandemic, the effects of which will continue to have lasting effects on organizations and society.
The Rise of Quantum Computing
Quantum is an emerging technology从一个COVID期间继续茁壮成长innovation and investment perspective. 2022 will be a breakout year for quantum. The need for high-precision test and measurement will rapidly expand to enable superconducting quantum systems to realize their full potential.
Multiple 100-qubit quantum computers come to the cloud
在2022年，几家公司将用100台或以上的量子位将量子处理器单元（QPU）释放到云中。这些突破将为设备开发人员带来新的挑战，包括缩放（较大的量子计算机），部署（更多校准）以及量子设备的可重复性（设备制造中的可重复性）。
Breakthroughs in two-qubit gate error rates
Two-qubit gate error rates are currently a major limiting factor in quantum algorithm performance in finance, pharma, and logistics applications. With QPU technologies now demonstrating improvements in two-qubit gate error rates, there will be record lows in system noise in 2022, helping improve the performance of quantum processors. These advances create a new challenge to measure small gate error rates and understand QPU crosstalk reliably and efficiently.
弹性供应链
Current supply-chain disruptions (shortages of semiconductor chips and raw materials, coupled with logistics constraints like crowded ports and a shortage of truck drivers) have created bottlenecks that will continue to constrain output in 2022. Supply-chain resilience is now key to an organization's ability to navigate the ongoing volatility.
Organizations will increasingly divert efforts to未来的供应链to gain a competitive advantage. In addition, sustainable supply chains will be prioritized to mitigate the environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) risk.
- Supply chains will become more agile and digitized:数字技术将在供应链生态系统中建立新的功能。随着自动化和知名度的更大，组织将更加敏捷，并能够迅速对波动做出反应。
- The self-driving supply chain will become a reality:随着认知自动化被广泛嵌入，供应链将变得更加聪明。这将导致自动化提出建议，预测结果，并最终自主做出决策。
- Business continuity planning and risk mitigation:Rather than relying on one global provider, there will be a shift to multiple sourcing and regionalization to reduce disruption. This will be a vital determinant of supply-chain resilience.
- 弹性的设计：Product design will incorporate easier to source standardized parts, enabling organizations to respond quickly to disruptions. Maintaining safety stocks for critical components will replace the established “just in time” approach to inventory.
Virtual Collaboration Will Become More Sophisticated
大流行向组织表明，他们可以通过不同的劳动力成功。在2022年，virtual collaboration will become more sophisticated, with organizations utilizing innovative technology to boost productivity. This new wave of remote collaboration will create a complex web of connected systems in which test and measurement will be essential to ensure a seamless and secure experience.
- Virtual-reality/augmented-reality/mixed-reality (VR/AR/MR) technologies will support better visualization. In product design, digital twins will create simulations of designs before building the physical product. These simulations allow remote teams to collaborate on the design, improve the overall process, and reduce the time and cost required for product development.
- Remote monitoring with automated systems, including robots in warehouses and delivery drones for logistics, will capture and consolidate data that remote workers can share and monitor in real-time.
Enterprise IT
Citizen developers will dominate by 2025
The biggest challenge and opportunity for CIOs is the democratization of IT through citizen development. A citizen developer reports to a business unit or function other than IT. By 2027, there will be five times as many citizen developers as traditional developers in organizations.
- The accelerating pace of digital transformation with every workflow becoming automated, streamlined, and interconnected is fueling the insatiable demand for more apps.
- The widespread deployment of intelligent technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and natural language processing (NLP) in no-code and low-code platforms, enables citizen developers to perform automation. As a result of this shift, CIOs will no longer be resource-constrained and can rapidly scale their digital transformation efforts. However, they will need to continuously monitor and test the user experience across the entire ecosystem of apps and services.
- The pivot to citizen developers will add to the security burden as CIOs will need real-time visibility into the network to ensure that citizen developers and users are secure. The rise of citizen developers depends on continuous intelligent test automation, ensuring that everything performs as users expect and that systems are secure.
In enterprise systems, cloud-first composable architectures will displace monolithic legacy architectures
- IT organizations will accelerate the digitalization of their firms through API-based integration of cloud-based solutions from a variety of vendors to achieve unprecedented levels of adaptability, functionality, customer experience, scalability, and robustness.
- 每个公司将越来越依赖其云服务供应商，解决方案提供商和业务合作伙伴网络的性能，可靠性和安全性。
- 网络可见性和网络数字双win解决方案将需要找到新的方法，以跨多个公司的网络跨越所需的性能，可靠性，最重要的是安全性。
IoT
It’s all about subscription services, not devices
Connected devices are ubiquitous across industries; the key now is to deliver subscription services. In 2022, intelligent technologies will allow organizations to treat customers as a segment of one and roll out hyper-personalized services. For example:
- A smart fridge presents menu options for the week based on an individual’s preference (gluten-free) and then automatically suggests shopping lists with the preferred grocery delivery service for any missing ingredients for the meals.
- By 2025, these types of personalized services will have grown rapidly and over 50% of households (U.S.) will have a least one subscription.
传统行业将成为基于订阅/用法的
劳斯莱斯（Rolls-Royce）根据用法租用其发动机；火车是每英里租赁的。随着按需经济的不断扩大，订阅模型将扩展到企业和消费市场。这包括汽车，厨房用具和自动服务。连接的基础架构将建议在需要进行维修或更换时，随着预测性维护成为2024年的规范，以优化这些服务的可用性。
Autonomous vehicles help fuel the shift to mobility as a service (MaaS)
The combination of autonomous vehicles and the move to subscription-based services aligns with a world where you no longer need to own a car. By 2025, consumers will shift to a rent-a-service model, enabling them to go wherever and whenever they like. Another advantage of autonomous vehicles is that users can optimize their locations to maximize the predicted utilization. This ensures that everyone who wants a car gets one when they need it, using the minimum number of vehicles by analyzing live and historical data to fuel predictive analytics.
IoT will transform the retail experience
- Before the end of this decade, there will be no checkout or cashiers in any retail store. Intelligent technologies and RFID tags will track every item and auto charge to a customer’s credit card/bank account, removing the friction from the physical shopping experience.
- By 2024, robots will be widely deployed both in-store and in warehouses/fulfillment centers, further shrinking the number of human jobs in the retail industry.
- Supermarkets will be the next victim of the retail apocalypse. As RFID tags become pervasive in the home and in stores, supermarkets will deliver directly from the warehouse to the customer, eliminating the need for physical stores.
- Drone delivery will become the norm by 2025 to meet the demands of younger consumers and to help accelerate the delivery of goods.
Healthcare diagnostics
同样的物联网开始移动分析the edge, this is now happening in healthcare. Increasingly sophisticated and accredited, devices (such as the Apple Watch) have technology that allows individual patients to perform a range of diagnostics on their own devices in their own home and in their own time. This trend will expand into new markets, delivering a range of autonomous, preliminary diagnosis solutions in most homes by 2024.
Security
Supply-chain cyber risks will soar
With the increased reliance on technology, cybersecurity risks and vulnerabilities will become a growing concern for supply chains as hackers have turned their attention to the industrial IoT and other critical infrastructure targets, including supply chains.设计弹性供应链will require connecting the entire ecosystem and ensuring that unrelenting attacks from hackers aren’t successful.
By 2025, SecOps will be the number one operational priority
- With security breaches a growing threat to every industry, DevOps will finally be superseded by DevSecOps in 2022 as businesses realize that security must take center stage in a hyper-connected digital world.
- Information technology security and operations teams will collaborate and integrate tools, processes, and technology to keep organizations secure. Security auditing and self-directed attacks will be the only viable way to mitigate risk.
将引入标准以帮助保护连接的系统
- Every single connected device presents another attack vector for hackers to exploit. With the complexity of connected systems, organizations haven’t had visibility into where the problems occur. By the end of 2023, standards will emerge that provide a single, secured interface to IoT systems to narrow the attack surface and provide better visibility into attempted and successful breaches.
- 在信任和安全至关重要的越来越多的联系世界中，新的安全策略将是必不可少的。在攻击者可以利用他们之前确定覆盖范围和补救漏洞的差距将是每个组织的竞争优势。
数字转换和连通性
There will be an insatiable demand for bandwidth
对带宽的需求继续不断增长，并且像数字潮汐一样上升。在当今世界，更多的设备正在传输和接收更丰富的内容：高分辨率图像；4K和8K视频；动态的，互动的体验，例如多玩家游戏；和远程医疗。
Meeting customer expectation for next-generation wireless devices will require breakthrough innovations to deliver significantly reduced size, weight, power, and cost (SWaP-C)
The insatiable appetite for bandwidth and reliability has resulted in an explosion of complexity in the wireless infrastructure—both in the fixed plant and user equipment (UE). New RF bands and advanced modulation formats and techniques contribute to the rise in complexity. Nevertheless, consumers are unwilling to accept increases in cost or size of UE and demand even greater battery life. Achieving the necessary SWaP-C reductions requires a multi-faceted approach, including advanced packaging technologies capable of interconnecting hundreds of millimeter-wave (mmWave) components while extracting unwanted heat, as well as breakthrough approaches in microcircuit fabrication.
5G will supercharge digital transformation across multiple industries
- Through the end of this decade, the pace of transformation will continue to accelerate. In 2022, the wide-scale rollout of 5G will supercharge the speed of change with the removal of bandwidth constraints. Deployments, device certifications, and network rollouts will continue to scale, and asopen radio access networks (O-RAN) mature，将按大规模部署5G。
- 5G devices will be everywhere in 2022. The focus will be on new industrial IoT devices with improved latency and reliability. 5G coverage in rural locations will remain limited, and 5G-assisted autonomous cars (level 4) will not come to fruition in 2022.
- Ongoing investment in 3GPP’s releases 16 and17, and beyond, will focus on new capabilities such as reducing latency, improving reliability and positioning. This will facilitate new use cases in vehicular and industrial networks and factory automation.
- 5 g将使下一阶段的无处不在的第一版ing by distributing intelligence where it’s needed and improving efficiencies of every process through better control and reduction of waste.
6G: More is happening than you think
- By 2028, 5G networks will be pervasive, realizing the original vision of 5G by enabling vertical industries well beyond what we think of as “mobile communications.” This includes industrial IoT, digitized healthcare, smart cities, and extended-reality (XR) applications that currently are just concepts. The first commercial 6G networks will go live in that same year, paving the way for the convergence of the physical, digital, and human worlds through applications, computing, and communications. It will finally create the Internet of Everything (IoE).
- The launch of 6G in 2028 will be enabled by research already underway. And we’ll see increased investment in 2022 from academia, government, and industry. This research will outline how to make the vision around 6G a reality. 6G will make mobile communications a more fundamental part of our professional and personal lives.
Digital-twin adoption will forever change how we design, build, and deliver products
- As organizations strive to advance digital transformation, they will recognize the limitations of virtual systems and increasingly adopt digital twins. For example, in emerging industries like autonomous vehicles, manufacturers have no room for error. With a digital twin, they can simulate every permutation and continuously refine the design.
- 数字双胞胎提出了一种接近设计和模拟的新方法that’s more efficient and practical, and meets the growing regulatory burden. Unlike a virtual model, digital twins update in real-time with performance, maintenance, and health data from the physical systems, improving decision-making. To keep up with the pace of digital transformation, digital twins will become an essential part of product design.
Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and cloudification technologies will increasingly enable future networks
This will include core network transformation and improved mobility, as well as new software technologies that will increasingly enable telecommunications, including O-RAN, 5G core networks, and mmWave mobility.
Artificial Intelligence also will continue to transform testing, analytics, and automation
- AI/ML is at the heart of automation, not just in running the tests, but in how we use the data to make informed decisions. It’s far more efficient to move the algorithm to the data rather than move terabytes of data into the cloud, so we expect to see some advances that will help gain insight faster on data in movement.
- 随着数字优先世界的复杂性日益增加，仅测试代码就无法正常工作。在2022年，代码合规性将不再确定是否可以发布软件。对于使用“ AI”技术的系统越来越多的系统尤其如此。并非所有响应都是确定性的，需要“ AI测试AI”。智能测试自动化对于确保我们的复杂连接世界的表现至关重要。
Sustainability and ESG Will Remain a Key Focus
Supply chains will embrace sustainability
As organizations look to mitigate their ESG risk, they will prioritize sustainable supply chains. The sustainable supply chain will incorporate:
- Reducing the carbon footprint in shipment and logistics planning and having carbon accounting platforms across systems to monitor emissions data.
- 建立循环供应链（减少，再利用，回收和再制造），以最大程度地减少影响环境并降低原材料成本的废物。
- 供应链完整性。道德和合规性将变得越来越重要，跨越公平和法律劳动实践，直到负责任的采购。
- Climate-smart supply chain. This will evaluate how environmental changes affect the availability of materials and identify potential disruptions to the supply chain.
- Creating sustainable supply chains requires comprehensive testing and verification to minimize the carbon footprint.
房屋的可持续性评级
- Homes are now overloaded with connected devices, which is impacting sustainability efforts. By 2025, home energy ratings will factor in the smart ecosystem and grade the efficiency of connected devices in the home. This rating will become a vital selling/renting feature, particularly for millennials and Gen Z.
- 随着所有内容的数字化，它创建了一个复杂的系统服务和应用网络，需要严格的自动测试，以确保一切不仅按预期执行，而且可以最大程度地减少环境影响。
The push toward net zero will need to expand
到2050年之前，要实现净零碳排放的推动力将需要部署一波新技术。但是，这无法应对大气中现有的碳。为了纠正平衡，在十年结束前需要在工业规模上进行碳固执或捕获形式。
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